The Feds Jackson Hole meeting and a key inflation reading: Whats coming this week The New York Times

what is jackson hole symposium

The full history of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is detailed in the book In Late August, which is available for free to download here. Wall Street debate recently has revolved around whether the rate hike will be by 50 or 75 basis points at the next FOMC meeting in September following their traditional summer break in August. The 2022 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be the first in-person gathering of the event since 2019 and marks 45 years of the event. Running from August 25-27, the event will kick off with a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Jerome H. Powell will speak on Friday and is expected to reveal details about how and when the central bank intends to wind down its bond-buying. Powell’s remarks along with media coverage of papers and speeches coming from the event will act as a good barometer of the state of the US economy as well as the world. This is especially helpful now when market volatility has been high, flip-flopping almost daily between a glass half-full, half-empty analysis. The main objective of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is to create a platform for open discussion of current economic issues. Participants come to discuss economic issues, implications, and policy options pertaining to the topic of that year’s conference (examples of past years’ topics are included below). The event is held late August every year and typically lasts three days, beginning with a dinner on Thursday.

  1. Participants include prominent central bankers and finance ministers, as well as academic luminaries and leading financial market players from around the world.
  2. Here, in a western-chic hotel that was donated to the national park that surrounds it by a member of the Rockefeller family, about 120 economists descend late each August to discuss a set of curated papers centered on a policy-relevant theme.
  3. Therefore, understanding what happens at this event and how it impacts market trends is crucial for traders and investors.
  4. This is especially helpful now when market volatility has been high, flip-flopping almost daily between a glass half-full, half-empty analysis.
  5. The Consumer Price Index, another closely watched inflation measure, rose 3.2% in July, a faster pace than the 3% in June, though underlying price pressures continued to decelerate that month.

Every year in August, the Federal Reserve holds a small gathering of the world’s leading economists and policymakers against the backdrop of the Grand Teton Mountains in Wyoming. The world’s most exclusive economic get-together takes place this week in the valley at the base of the Teton mountains, in a lodge that is a scenic 34 miles from Jackson, Wyo. The topic for the 2023 symposium was “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy.” The topic for the 2024 symposium has not yet been announced. Julia Kagan is a financial/consumer journalist and former senior editor, personal finance, of Investopedia. It is not intended to be investment advice and should not be relied on to form the basis of an investment decision. All speeches, panels, and publications will be posted to the Kansas City Fed’s website here.

U.S. Economy

Each year, the symposium has a specific topic it discusses, seeking to discuss and improve long-term policies that are of concern to all parties involved. A major and ongoing consideration for central bankers is trying to stay ahead of inflation by setting interest rates to prevent rapid price increases. The 1984 symposium focused on topics such as the causes of inflation, the benefits of price stability, tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation, and monetary strategy with an elastic price standard. From understanding what unfolded at past Jackson Hole Economic Symposiums to exploring possible effects on financial markets post-meeting, we hope our guide to Jackson Hole Fed meetings has proved handy. As financial markets continue to navigate uncertain terrains, the Jackson Hole Fed meeting’s impact remains relevant, making it a crucial date on the economic calendar. While there’s no guarantee that the Jackson Hole meeting will lead to any significant changes, the meeting offers a unique opportunity for global economic experts to exchange ideas, analyse existing trends and provide insights into the economic outlook.

But Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a sneak peek Friday into a key figure from the upcoming report. Since July 2022, Federal Reserve officials have been unanimous on interest rate decisions at each meeting. Either way, while the Fed chief hinted that more rate hikes might be coming down the pike, there’s no guarantee either way.

what is jackson hole symposium

Like Harker, Goolsbee will be voting on interest rate decisions for the rest of the year. At the center of the debate is Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who appears to be undecided about what the Fed should do going forward, let alone at its meeting next month. But many firms continue to have difficulty hiring, according to business surveys from groups such as the National Federation of Independent Business. In theory, that could prompt wage increases in order to secure talent — and those higher costs could then be passed on to consumers. Given their proximity to the war in Russia and Ukraine, Eurozone countries are much more vulnerable to supply shocks that are propping up inflation, compared to the United States. The event has been consistently held there since, although the COVID-19 pandemic forced the event into a virtual format in 2020 and then again in 2021.

The Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting and a key inflation reading: What’s coming this week.

Stocks recovered some of their losses Tuesday afternoon after initially falling as investors reviewed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic summit. Jackson Hole conferences of years past have underscored just how sensitive markets can be to the happenings in Wyoming. And the other point I just want to make is that even though we are at or near the point where the Fed could move into an extended hold, the next very big pertinent question is, how long will the Fed remain at those levels? Right now, perhaps the question, is the market under anticipating how long they will see a five handle on the Fed funds rate? Since then, the Jackson Hole Fed meeting has featured prominent speakers such as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and current Chairman Jerome Powell.

That was the case with July’s Consumer Price Index report — although the month-to-month increase in the annual rate of inflation primarily stemmed from baseline effects comparing last year’s inflation rate to this year’s. During his speech, Powell struck a hawkish tone, leaving the door open for future interest rate hikes. US stocks gave up earlier gains and tumbled in late morning trading as traders chewed on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. While Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker expressed skepticism Friday over the need to continue hiking, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Fed Chair Powell’s message of leaving the door open for more rate hikes. The Federal Reserve’s outpost in Kansas City originally conceived the event in 1978 as a forum to discuss agricultural trade.

Mr. Powell will be speaking at a moment when the Fed’s next moves are uncertain as inflation moderates but the economy retains a surprising amount of momentum. Wall Street is trying to figure out whether Fed officials think that they need to raise interest rates more this year, and if so, whether that move is likely to come in September. They have lifted interest rates to 5.25 to 5.5 percent from near zero in March 2022, and have left their options open to do more. The current Fed leadership in the US has undertaken an aggressive rate hiking campaign, lifting interest rates by 225 basis points since March 2022 in an attempt to tame inflation. Investors will look to Jackson Hole to understand how the Fed will act in the coming months and years. If the report does indeed show 3.3% inflation in July, that would mean inflation heated up slightly from the previous month.

Prominent members from the government, academia, economics, and the financial markets attend the Jackson Hole Symposium. This includes heads of global central banks, managers of financial institutions, and professors from respectable universities such as Harvard and Stanford. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City since 1978, and held in Jackson Hole, Wyo., since 1981. Every year, the symposium focuses on an important economic issue that faces world economies. Participants include prominent central bankers and finance ministers, as well as academic luminaries and leading financial market players from around the world.

what is jackson hole symposium

Anyone who wishes to view them can do so for free online, or get a free printed copy after they are published. While the Fed will likely not speak directly on what to expect at its next meeting in September, speeches tend to be https://www.dowjonesrisk.com/ a good barometer for the Fed’s overall plans. The question of how much further to raise rates to keep reigning in prices without tipping the economy into a recession will be on the minds of all participants and spectators.

Past Topics at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium

In doing so, she said the ECB will continue to set interest rates “at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.” Questions will also most certainly be raised with regards to maintaining high interest rates for extended periods. While the Federal Reserve has stated that they’re only considering interest rate cuts from 2024, investors and traders will be keeping their ears peeled for mentions of positive macroeconomic data impacting this stance. Those bullish on the market will be anticipating a more dovish tone when it comes to how the Fed deals with inflationary concerns. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve keeps up with its hawkish stance, we may see another major sell-off as investors and traders seek greener pastures and dump their existing holdings in the market. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is an annual gathering of individuals to discuss central banking policies.

But over the following years, the Kansas City Fed made efforts to broaden out the scope of the conference to general policy matters. On-site media interviews with various Fed officials add to the flurry of communication coming out of Jackson Hole, giving investors plenty of tea leaves to read on where policy could go in the future. The theme of the 2022 symposium is Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy. This theme is meant to explore the emergence of economic constraints during the pandemic and how supply chain issues have reemerged. Shortages have limited global economic supply even as demand surges, resulting in an imbalance that has raised inflation globally. The Federal Reserve’s outpost in Kansas City originally held the event, beginning in 1978, as a forum to discuss agricultural trade.

The symposium is closely watched because it has tended to set the agenda for monetary policy in the current environment. Two previous Fed Chairs, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan, used Jackson Hole to signal major policy shifts. This event is completely separate from the Fed’s eight, pre-scheduled policy-setting meetings where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes to change interest rate or balance sheet policies in response to economic conditions.

In his speech Friday, Powell stood firmly by the Fed’s current 2% inflation target, which was formalized in 2012 — at least for now. The Fed is set to review its policy framework around 2025, which could be an opportunity to establish a new inflation target. In 2019, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech in the middle of then-President Donald Trump’s campaign to berate the Fed into interest rate cuts. Trump, seemingly believing the Jackson Hole meeting was a policy-setting meeting, expressed disappointment that Powell’s speech did not coincide with a decision to lower interest rates. The conference is separate from the Fed’s eight, pre-scheduled policy-setting meetings, during which the Federal Open Market Committee votes to change interest rate or balance sheet policies in response to economic conditions.

However, if current economic trends continue to play out, “our argument is going to revolve around how long should we keep rates at the levels they are, rather than how much higher should the rates go,” Goolsbee said Friday in a CNBC interview from Jackson Hole. The Consumer Price Index, another closely watched inflation measure, rose 3.2% in July, a faster pace than the 3% in June, though underlying price pressures continued to decelerate that month. Stocks blasted higher in afternoon trading Friday, even after Federal Reserve Chair Powell warned in comments in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that central bank officials were “prepared to raise rates further.” The next morning usually kicks off with a speech from the sitting Fed chair, followed by other speeches and panel discussions. The event has also become a globally significant affair, with central bank governors and heads traveling from as far as Japan to spend time at the Jackson Lake Lodge.


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